Players to Watch: 2012

.900+ OPS, 75-150 PA (Post All Star Break, 2011)
1.114 Adrian Beltre (Rangers)
1.061 Nick Hundley (Padres)
1.035 Chris Parmelee (Twins)
1.028 Andruw Jones (Yankees)
.967 Ryan Raburn (Tigers)
.943 Yonder Alonso (Reds)
.931 Daniel Murphy (Mets)
.915 Shelly Duncan (Indians)
.908 Jerry Sands (Dodgers)
.901 Allen Craig (Cardinals)

There are several players on this list who are not very well known, but might be worth watching.  Chris Parmelee, who was a 1st round draft pick in 2006, made his major league debut on September 6th.  It's not clear how he fits into the 2012 season for the Twins with Justin Morneau coming back, but you can to figure he'll be back before too long after his great September.

Jerry Sands was a 25th round draft pick in 2008 and was hitting .205 for the year before rejoining the team in September and hitting .342.  Sands might be on the Dodgers bench this year or he might start in the minors and get more at-bats.

Yonder Alonso was the 7th overall pick in 2008 and was traded to the Padres in December in the Mat Latos trade, likely making him the starting 1st baseman for the Padres next year. 

Jack Morris

160+ Wins, .570+ W-L% (per decade, since 1940)
40's: Hal Newhouser
50's: Warren Spahn, Robin Roberts, Early Wynn
60's: Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson
70's: Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Tom Seaver, Catfish Hunter, Don Sutton
80's: Jack Morris
90's: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux
00's: None

Does this mean that Jack Morris should be in the Hall of Fame? No, but it is interesting.  A better illustration of how he compared to other pitchers from his era is that from 1979-1992, he had 233 wins with a .590 W-L%.  The closest in wins during that time period was Bob Welch with 192 wins, followed by Dave Stieb with 174 wins. 

Most wins, 14 year span
1956-1969: Don Drysdale 209 Wins
1960-1973: Juan Marichal, 238
1965-1978: Gaylord Perry 251, Fergie Jenkins 231
1974-1987: Steve Carlton, 212

This is obviously not an exhaustive list, but it shows that 233 compares well with some other time periods in recent times.

There are serious problems with Morris' Hall of Fame candidacy, although it seems to be finally picking up steam.  His ERA was high (3.90), never finished higher than 3rd for a Cy Young award, didn't have dominant walk or strikeout numbers, etc., but winning 233 games over a 14 year period (with a .590 W-L%) is impressive and unusual in modern history.

Matt Cain

220+ IP, 9 or fewer HR allowed (since 1997)
1997 Roger Clemens (Blue Jays)
1997 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1997 Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
1998 Kevin Brown (Padres)
2011 Matt Cain (Giants)

Guest Post - Worst Long Term Contract (7+ years)

Worst Long-Term MLB Contracts (7+ years)

In 2000, pitcher Mike Hampton signed an 8 year $121 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. This was the largest contract in sports history at the time. Hampton threw a disappointing 14-13 with a 5.12 ERA in 2001, and the following season pitched a disastrous 7-15 with a 6.15 ERA. Hampton was traded to the Florida Marlins only two years into his contract and the Rockies ate millions of dollars in losses. The Marlins in return traded Hampton to the Atlanta Braves where he threw two average seasons before suffering a major elbow injury. Due to injuries, Hampton sat out nearly three seasons before making a return in 2008. He was soon injured again, however, and finished 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA.

A special mention goes to pitcher Denny Neagle who signed a 5 year $51 million contract with the Colorado Rockies alongside Mike Hampton in 2000. Neagle went 19-23 with a 6.61 ERA in three seasons before succumbing to injuries and missing the 2004 season. The Rockies were fortunate enough to void the last year of his contract under morality clauses after he was caught soliciting a prostitute for oral sex.

The only three certainties in life are death, taxes, and bad investments from the Chicago Cubs. But perhaps none is worse than the 8 year $136 million contract signed by Alfonso (“Albozo”) Soriano in 2007. This was the largest contract in Cubs history and contained a no-trade clause (meaning Soriano cannot be traded without his consent). Needless to say, his performance since 2007 has been mediocre at best. He led the Cubs with 130 strikeouts during his first season and digressed to a personal worst .241 batting average in 2009. Soriano is notorious for his lack of clutch hitting with runners in scoring position and unsuccessful hacks at sliders low and outside.

Jason Giambi signed a 7 year $120 million contract with the New York Yankees in 2001. By 2003, Giambi had led the league in strikeouts and had a .250 batting average. He finished 2004 with a .208 batting average and 12 home runs. While he experienced resurgence in 2005 and 2006, his numbers dropped significantly in 2007 after suffering a foot injury (.236 batting average, 39 RBI’s, 14 home runs). The Yankees declined to extend Giambi’s contract after expiration and was signed by the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics subsequently released him and he was picked up by the Colorado Rockies.

A special mention goes to Alex Rodriquez (“A-Rod”) who signed a 10 year $275 million contract with the New York Yankees. This contract was the most lucrative contract in sports history. It is highly debatable whether A-Rod’s contract is one of the worst in MLB history because he did put up good numbers for the most part. Rather, he was known particularly for sub-par postseason performances and inability to hit in “clutch” situations. He developed the nickname “The Cooler” for the tendency of teams to turn cold when he became part of the team. Teammates also used to call him “A-Fraud” for an apparent prissy and needy attitude.

This is a guest post written by Jeff Herbst. Jeff has had a passion for sports ever since he could first walk and enjoys writing in his spare time. He works with Phoenix Bats, a company that manufacturers wooden baseball bats and specialty custom wood bats for amateur and professional ball players.

Gio Gonzalez

15+ Wins, 7.5+ SO/9, .570 W-L%, 3.25 ERA or less (LHP, Multiple seasons throuby age 26, since 1900)
1975-77 Frank Tanana
2010-11 Gio Gonzalez
1955-56 Herb Score
2004-05 Johan Santana

Gio Gonzalez, who was recently aquired by the Nationals from the A's, is clearly a talented young pitcher.  This indicates that he's even more special than I had realized.  The Nationals had to give up a lot to get him, but it will be worth it if he keeps producing like he has the last few years.  If he had pitched the same on the Rangers or Yankees or Tigers, he might have won 20 games each year. 

Which right handed pitchers have had multiple seasons like that before age 26? Roger Clemens, Jim Maloney, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins, Denny McLain.  If Gonzalez performs like he's capable, the Nationals could be a scary team in 2012.

Why can't Cole Hamels win more than 15 games?

31+ Starts, 15 wins or fewer, 3.10 ERA or lower, W-L% .580+ (2+ seasons, since 1900)
Bert Blyleven (1975, 78)
Jose Rijo (1992-93)
Tom Glavine (1996-97)
Kevin Brown (2000, 03)
Cole Hamels (2008, 11)

Cole Hamels is having an excellent career and is considered one of the best young pitchers in the game.  He is one of only 3 pitchers under 30 (and 6 overall) who has an ERA under 3.40 and 180 career starts (the other pitchers under 30 are Felix Hernandez and Matt Cain; pitchers over 30 are Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt).  He has won a LCS and WS MVP and came in 5 in Cy Young voting this year.

The only problem is that he hasn't won over 15 games in a season despite having a low ERA almost every year and routinely starting over 30 games.  He pitches for a team that has won 5 consecutive division titles.

What's the problem?  One issue is that he doesn't get enough decisions.  It's tough to win over 15 games when you are averaging about 23 decisions a year.  In contrast, Roy Halladay has been averaging nearly 29 decisions a year. 

In 2010, they both had 33 starts, but Halladay had over 40 more innings, and 8 more decisions (and 9 more wins).  In 2010, Hamels had a solid 33 starts (only a handful of pitchers went over 33), but finished 30th in innings pitched.  He did better in 2011, with 8 more innings despite 2 fewer starts.

If Hamels stays healthy, he appears ready to have his best season yet.  Last year was his best year for ERA, WHIP, SO/BB, H/9 and BB/9, and 2012 should be his best for wins.

Darren Oliver

4+ SO/BB, 50+ IP, 7.5+ SO/9 (2010 & 2011)
J.J. Putz (Career: 3.2 SO/BB, 9.3 SO/9)
Roy Halladay (3.7, 6.9)
Rafael Betancourt (4.6, 9.6)
Cliff Lee (3.4, 7.3)
Darren Oliver (1.7, 5.8)

He wasn't able to close out Game 6, but what Darren Oliver has done over the last few years is remarkable.  It makes you wonder what his career numbers would be if he had been in the bullpen his entire career (his ERA this year was 2.29, his career ERA is 4.60).  Oliver is a free agent and apparently wants to return for at least another year.  He shouldn't have too much trouble finding a team considering he has been one of the best left-handed middle relievers over the past few years.

How great were Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp in 2011?

.324 BA, 33 HR, 33 SB, 111 RBI, 109 R (since 1900)
1922 Ken Williams (Browns)
1997 Larry Walker (Rockies)
2011 Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2011 Matt Kemp (Dodgers)

Did Matt Kemp deserve to win the MVP? Maybe.  Probably.  But, we all know that when the numbers are close enough the guy on the playoff team always wins.  The AL may as well enshrine it in writing, having only given one (!) MVP award to a player who didn't go to the playoffs (in a non-strike year) since Cal Ripken in 1991 (A-Rod in 2003).  If Kemp keeps playing this way, it could play to his advantage in the future, although that's not much of a consolation right now. 

Regardless, they both had incredible seasons that stack up very well if measured historically.  Kemp bested Braun in most of the stats measured by sheer volume (playing in 11 more games than Braun helped) and Braun edged Kemp with some percentages (BA, OPS, SLG). 

As shown above, the only 2 players in history that could equal the worst numbers either Braun or Kemp had in these 5 categories  (Braun's output except for BA) were Larry Walker and Ken Williams.  To be fair to Walker, he was great on the road in 1997 (.346, 29 HR, 62 RBI), but it didn't hurt that he was playing at Coors where he hit .384 (he hit a staggering .381 at Coors for his career, covering nearly 600 games). 

Ken Williams was the first 30/30 players, and the only 30/30 player until Willie Mays in 1956.  He was a fine player (.319 career), but it was the only time he had 30 HR or 30 SB.  It was such a great year, he received except 0 votes for MVP , despite leading the league in HR and RBI.

This probably won't be the last time that the NL MVP will come down to Braun and Kemp, although it's hard to imagine both of them having this type of season again in the same year again. 

Top Relievers through 27

2.15 ERA or lower, 150+ Games in Relief, through age 27 (since 1900)
1963-68 Frank Linzy (Giants) 2.15 ERA, 230 G
2005-08 Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox): 1.84, 202
2009-11 Andrew Bailey (A's) 2.07, 157
2010-11 Jonny Venters (Braves) 1.89, 164

Guest Post - The UK League Needs US Help

The UK League Needs US Help

Although the Brits claim to have invented baseball, they are still in need of further US assistance if they’re to bring the leagues up to US standards. With just 35 clubs and 51 league teams in a population of 65 million people, few towns have a representative team.

Jane Austen and Baseball

Jane Austen mentions baseball in her novel Northanger Abbey, written around 1798-99, some 43 years after the English first started playing the sport. The game came back to England – Derby to be precise – in 1890, after Francis Ley discovered the game in the US. This led to the first baseball club in the town and although survived for just eight years, the stadium was called the Baseball Ground which became home of the local soccer (football in the UK) team, Derby County FC who remained there until 1997.

Local pressure, which didn’t agree with the number of Americans in the Derby team, forced them out of the first league after just one season. Now teams are calling out for more American experience to bring the quality of the games and therefore the numbers of spectators up to acceptable levels.

The peak of interest in baseball in the UK was in the years just before the Second World War. Professional standards were attained and as many as 10,000 people attended matches. The year before the war the Brits managed to beat the US to win the first World Cup of baseball – so what happened after that? Well, the British are still playing baseball, but not to US standard.

The British Baseball Federation

The British Baseball Federation (BBF) governs the game in the UK. All teams have to be members of the BBF to be able to compete in the national league and the three AAA, AA and A tier leagues below. A full program of young and junior leagues hopes to bring players to the forefront in years to come.

The national league consists of just ten teams. The AAA league has 4 teams in the north and 6 in the south. The AA is set into three zones; 5 north, 5 midlands and 13 south. The A league has all 8 teams in the south.

The national league, AAA and AA compete in a four team finals tournament at the end of the season. The top 2 from the Southern Conference and the top two from the Northern Conference play knock out matches with the tournament winner going through to the Championship series. The championship series of the National league is a best of 3, while the AAA and AA matches are just single games.

The Dominant Teams

Four teams have dominated over recent years. The Richmond Flamers, London Mets, Croydon Pirates and Bracknell Blazers give the league a very southern, almost London only feeling. If the game is going to expand you will need to see teams from major towns competing in the highest leagues.

Another International Team Due For 2012

The British national baseball team is currently ranked 23rd in the world. Players consist almost entirely of British born players who have lived most of their lives in either Canada or the US, with two South African born members. There are 40 teams on the list so there are plenty below, although it must be galling for the British team to see many smaller nations ahead of them in the rankings.

The national team set up will be expanded in 2012 with the introduction of an under 23 team. This will hopefully allow players to play in international matches helping the individuals’ progress through to the full national team.

The national junior team is at a major dilemma stage. Six of the team will reach the maximum age of 18 this coming year and won’t be able to play for the team any more. This means they won’t be able to play internationally unless they achieve selection to the senior national team. With the introduction of the under 23 team, more players will continue to compete internationally with a more gradual feed through to the senior squad. It’s the senior team that battles with local games in the European Championship and internationally in the World Baseball classic.

If British baseball is to expand, more Americans and Canadians currently living in the UK need to get involved in the game at all levels. Only then will the experience of the few help the many who need to learn from experienced players, for the long term stability of the game.


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Izzy Woods is a travel writer and sports fan. Since moving to London, she has written on behalf of numerous clients (including a cruise deals company) in between keeping up on Britain's progress in lesser-played, American sports.