Sunday, August 2, 2009

Are C.C. Sabathia's numbers a surprise?

On a very good Yankees team with a great offense, Carsten Charles (C.C.) Sabathia is 11-7 with a 3.95 ERA. He has pitched more than 8 innings only once (a complete game shutout at Baltimore on May 8th). He had a 4.62 ERA in July and allowed 5 runs and 10 hits over 7 innings in a loss to the White Sox today.

He has the most expensive contract of any pitcher in Major League history: 7 years, $161 million

Here is what got him the contract:
2006: 12-11, 3.21, 172 SO, 44 BB
2007: 19-7, 3.21, 209 SO, 37 BB(Indians) - Cy Young Award
2008: 11-2, 1.65, 128 SO, 25 BB (Brewers) - 5th in NL Cy Young Voting
.614 W-L % (10th among active pitchers)
240+ IP (2007, 2008)
28 Complete Games (11th Active)
11 Shutouts (7th Active)

This didn't:
2004: 11-10, 4.12
2005: 15-10, 4.03
2008: 6-8, 3.83 (Indians)
Postseason: 2-3, 7.92 ERA

He has impressive career numbers: 117-73 with a 3.65 ERA entering this season

Here is a breakdown of 2 pitchers. One is Sabathia, the other is a well-known pitcher.

Pitcher A
Hits/9: 7.49 (35th all time)
SO/9: 9.12 (8th)
SO/BB: 3.65 (11th)
WHIP: 1.11 (11th)

Pitcher B
Hits/9: 8.33 (243rd all-time)
SO/9: 7.48 (51st)
SO/BB: 2.65 (57th)
WHIP: 1.24 (228th)

Pitcher A is one of the most dominant pitchers ever. Pitcher B is very good, but the numbers much more pedestrian.

Pitcher A: Johan Santana
Pitcher B: C.C. Sabathia

How much does this matter? Hard to tell, especially since these are career statistics. Santana, for instance, has fallen slightly since his 2004-2006 peak. Sabathia put up incredible numbers in 2007 and 2008 after the trade, but not as much as the rest of his career.

More Sabathia numbers:

2007: 5.65 (1st in league)
2008 (Brewers): 5.12
2009: 2.53 (37th)

2007: 7.8
2008: 8.9
2009: 6.6

2007: 1.4
2008: 2.1
2009: 2.6

Interestingly, he is allowing fewer hits and a lower batting average than in 2007 (.259 vs. .242)

These are not bad numbers, they're just not elite or worthy of a pitcher making $160 million over 7 years. The trends are not good either. All of these numbers are worse than they were in 2007. It's still early and he'll win a lot of games as a Yankee, but I would be worried about his strikeout and walk totals compared his his 2007 and 2008 seasons (the seasons that got him the contract in the first place).


  1. Thank you very much for posting and sharing this great article. It is so interesting for me alat bantu sex pria

  2. the series of air force,diving series and so on,these Replica Rolex Watches on the Internet has long been well received, to join a collective of Basel and horological exhibit a review.UK Replica watches Relative to the style remains the same, one hundred RMB cost tens of Replica Rolex watches brand, emphasize the design feeling, positioning of fast fashion, good at Watches Replica Internet channel Time100 time (one hundred) watch out, the market for a large number of young people Designer handbags.

  3. By; Viagra Asli
    Hello sir thank you, I've visited your blog and I have read the article from the beginning to the end, thank you sir I got a good lesson, may be useful for me, thank you sir hope your job will be a blessing.
    Alat Bantu Sex , Alat Bantu Sex Terbaru , Sex Toys Terbaru

    Best wishes


Site Meter