Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Which Cliff Lee will show up today?

Cliff Lee was unbelievably good for his first 5 starts with the Phillies after being traded from the Indians on , but the last 7 have been miserable.
First 5 starts: 5-0, 0.67 ERA, 39 SO, 6 BB
Next 7: 2-4, 6.20 ERA, 35 SO, 4 BB

His walks and strikeouts have remained good, and the home runs allowed have stayed the same too. He started allowing a lot of hits:
August: .226, 3 HR
September: .320, 3 HR

There is something in his favor, though. Despite Colorado's fine play this season, they only hit .235 on the road (vs. .287 at home), which was 2nd worst in the league. They were 21st in runs scored on the road vs. 2nd in runs at home.

Breakdown of Lee's last 7 starts:
3 Home: 1-2, 4.05 ERA (including complete game shutout vs. Nationals on Sept. 15)
4 Road: 1-2, 8.10 ERA

His most recent 4 starts were much better than the previous 3 in allowing hits:
(Sept. 15-Oct. 1: 4 starts) 27 H, 24.2 IP
(Aug. 29-Sept. 9: 3 starts) 29 H, 15 IP

Prediction: In the first postseason start of his career, Lee is solid, but not dominant (3 ER over 7 IP) and gets the win.

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