Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Jason Marquis: The next Charles Nagy?




The Nationals recently signed Jason Marquis for 2 years at 15 million. The Nationals are going to have to overpay to get decent free agents, so that's fine. Here's what would really worry me: He has a 94 wins and a .531 W-L%, which isn't bad, but a 4.48 ERA. In ML history, there have been over 300 pitchers with at least 94 career wins, and a .531 W-L%, and only 5 have had worse career ERA's than Marquis.

Darren Oliver
Aaron Sele
Charles Nagy
Dave Burba
Russ Ortiz

Most of these guys really started to flame out around age 30 or 31 (Marquis is currently 31). In 1999 (age 32) Charles Nagy went 17-11 (with a 4.95 ERA), and after that, he went 8-19 with an ERA of 7.50 over the next couple of years. A few years after being a Cy Young contender, Russ Ortiz went 0-8 at age 32, and has put up terrible numbers while barely staying in the league.
Burba was a bit of an exception, because he didn't become a regular starter until he was around 30. Marquis, like Sele, Ortiz and Nagy, has been starting since he was about 24. Oliver also lost it as a starter in his early 30's, but saved his career by become a good reliever in the last few years.

Marquis ended up last year on a bad note as well, losing 7 of his last 10 decisions. The Nationals probably aren't expecting that much out of him, just to be a professional starter who can thrown 200 innings and be slightly above .500. With low expectations, he has a decent chance at being what they expect in 2010, and it's only a 2 year contract, so it's not too bad. If Marquis is anything like Nagy, Ortiz and Sele (and he appears to be), it could be a very bumpy ride starting soon.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

.400 OBP /.290 BA


Career: .400+ OBP, sub-.290 BA, 5000+ PA
Roy Thomas (1899-1911): .290 BA, .413 OBP, 6575 PA
Lu Blue (1921-1933) .287, .402, 7207
Max Bishop (1924-1935) .271, .423, 5776
Eddie Stanky (1943-1953) .268, .410, 5435
Rickey Henderson (1979-2003) .279, .401, 13346
Jim Thome (1991-present) .277, .404, 9463
Jason Giambi (1995-present) .282, .405, 8135

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Top ERA

Top ERA: 60+IP
2009: George Sherrill (Orioles/Dodgers) - 1.70 ERA (69 IP)
2008: Joe Nathan (Twins) - 1.33 (67.2 IP)
2007: J.J. Putz (Mariners) - 1.38 (71.2 IP)
2006: Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox) - 0.92 (68.1 IP)
2005: Mariano Rivera (Yankees) - 1.38 (78.1 IP)
2004: Armando Benitez (Marlins) - 1.29 (69.2 IP)
2003: John Smoltz (Braves) - 1.12 (64.1 IP)
2002: Chris Hammond (Braves) - 0.95 (76 IP)
2001: Felix Rodriguez (Giants) - 1.68 (80.1 IP)
2000: Robb Nen (Giants) - 1.50 (66 IP)

Monday, December 14, 2009

Top 25 Blogs

This is pretty interesting. Nicole Adams did a list of the top 25 blogs for baseball fans, with Baseball In-Depth coming in at #9:

9. Baseball In-Depth : Blogger Brad Templeman offers easily digested articles featuring straight facts and quick stats. Comprehensive lists occasionally undercut by brief blurbs undercut the majority of the content, making this something of a haven for baseball fans also harboring a love of numbers and detailed research guides.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

OPB/Slugging

Higher OBP than Slugging (2009):
Chone Figgins (Angels)
Nick Johnson (Nationals/Marlins)
Luis Castillo (Mets)
Russell Martin (Dodgers)
Nick Punto (Twins)
Jason Kendell (Brewers)

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Miguel Tejada


Miguel Tejada had a good season, leading the NL in doubles and hitting .313. It was unusual, though, because his OBP was only .340 because he only walked 13 times:

.310+ BA, .340- OPB, 600+ PA, since 1900:
Hy Myers: 1922 (Dodgers)
Vic Power: 1958 (A's/Indians)
Mickey Rivers: 1976 (Yankees)
Garry Templeton: 1977, 1979 (Cardinals)
Damaso Garcia: 1982 (Blue Jays)
Tony Fernandez: 1986 (Blue Jays)
Miguel Tejada: 2009 (Astros)
 
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