Monday, May 31, 2010

More Ubaldo Jimenez Stats

It might even be too low of a goal at this point, but I had written before about what it would take for Ubaldo Jimenez to finish with 20+ Wins, .800+ W-L% and a sub-2.20 ERA.  After his complete game shutout today, which puts him at 10-1, 0.78 ERA, we need to re-evaluate.

Reaching 20 wins and having a winning percentage above .800 won't be the problem.  The tough part is the ERA because it can be destroyed by one bad outing whereas that one loss wno't hurt the winning percentage that much.  If we adjust the prior assessment a little (6.8 IP/start) and move it up to 7 (he's currently at 7.3), then he would finish with 234.1 IP.  In order to stay under 2.20, he could allow 57 ER the entire season. 

In 2010, he has allowed 7 ER through 11 starts.  So, he could allow 50 ER over his final 22 starts, which, if assuming 7 IP/start, would give him an ERA of 2.92 the rest of the way.  If he does better than that, he could finish with numbers not seen since Dwight Gooden in 1985.

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