Sunday, September 12, 2010

NL West

The Padres are ice-cold (4-13 in their last 17 games), the Rockies are red-hot (10 game winning streak), and the Giants are playing solid baseball (9-3 in their last 12).  The Padres had a six game lead over their Giants 2 weeks ago, and they are now tied after the Giants beat the Padres today.  The Rockies were 10 games back as recently as a few weeks ago, and are now only 1.5 games out. 

It would seem that the Padres have no chance and are about to be cast aside by the Rockies juggernaut, but things can change quickly.  The Padres could remember how to hit or an injury could disrupt the momentum of the Rockies or Giants.  Even if a giant reset button were pressed tomorrow for every team, their schedules could still end up determining whether they make the playoffs or not.

It's not looking that good for the Padres on this front either.  They've been a good road team this season, although they have lost 5 of their last 6.  The fact that most of their final games are on the road wouldn't be such a big deal, but they are playing some of the best home teams in the league. 

The Giants, meanwhile, have most of their final games at home, and the teams they're playing aren't great road teams (and being a great road team almost always results in fewer wins than being a great home team anyway).

You have to wonder how much longer the Rockies can keep this up.  In 2007, they played well in late August and early September (although they were barely over .500 on September 1st), but didn't really turn on the jets until September 16th, when they began an 11 game winning streak (following a three game losing streak), eventually winning 14 of their final 15 and making it to the World Series. 

Even during their recent hot streak, almost all of their winning has come at home (only 6 of their last 20 games have come on the road).  If they have any problems at home, they could be in trouble.  It looks like it's coming down to the wire, and the Padres-Giants series in San Francisco from October 1-3 to close out the season could be the series of the year.
San Diego Padres:

43-32 Home (#17 in ML); 38-30 Road (#2)
7 home (Reds, Cubs); 13 road (Rockies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants)

Home Record Ranking: #2 Rockies, #5 Cardinals, #10 Giants, #16 Dodgers
Road: #4 Reds, #16 Cubs
San Francisco Giants
42-27 Home (#10); 39-36 Road (#7)
12 home (Dodgers, Brewers, D-Backs, Padres); 6 road (Cubs, Rockies)

Home: #2 Rockies, #28 Cubs
Road: #2 Padres, #14 Brewers, #18 Dodgers, #28 D-Backs
Colorado Rockies
50-22 Home (#2); 29-42 Road (#19)
9 home (Padres, Giants, Dodgers); 11 road (Dodgers, D-Backs, Cardinals)

Home: #4 Cardinals, #16 Dodgers, #23 D-Backs
Road: #2 Padres, #7 Giants, #19 Dodgers

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