Monday, June 27, 2011

Josh Tomlin's Unusual ERA

Highest ERA: 85+ IP, 1.075 WHIP or lower (1900-2011)
Josh Tomlin (Indians, 2011) 3.95 ERA, 1.056 WHIP
Phil Ortega (Senators, 1966) 3.92, 1.07
Don Mossi (Tigers, 1963) 3.74, 1.035
Ralph Terry (Indians, 1965) 3.69, 1.07, 1.07
LaMarr Hoyt (White Sox, 1983) 3.66, 1.024
Rollie Shelton (Yankees, 1964) 3.61, 1.075
Orlando Pena (Tigers/Indians, 1967) 3.59, 1.04
Curt Schilling (Phillies, 1995) 3.57, 1.052
Bill Faul (Cubs, 1965) 3.54, 1.045

The good news for Josh Tomlin is that most of his ERA troubles stem from 3 starts at the beginning of June, where he allowed 18 ER over 17 IP, and he's has improved since then.  Over his last 2 starts, he's 2-0 with 4 ER over 13 IP.  Even with a 6.60 ERA in June, he's only allowed 2 BB with 20 ER.  It seems likely that his ERA will continue to come down (it was 3.27 after 10 starts, and it's already come down from 4.14 to 3.95).

Friday, June 24, 2011

The Big 3 in DC?

ERA, June, NL (20+ IP)
0.27 Cliff Lee (Phillies)
0.65 Jeff Karstens (Pirates)
0.96 Johnny Cueto (Reds)
1.01 Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies)
1.23 Cole Hamels (Phillies)
1.32 Jordan Zimmerman (Nationals)
1.44 John Lannan (Nationals)
1.82 Jason Marquis (Nationals)
1.82 Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers)

The 3 starters from the Nationals are a combined 7-0.  In May, they were not nearly as good:

Zimmerman: 1-2, 3.23
Marquis: 3-2, 5.60
Lannan: 0-2, 5.14

In May, Lannan and Marquis had worse numbers than Livan Hernandez and Tom Gorzelanny.  This is an unlikely trio to propel the Nationals over .500 and potentially into a playoff race (4.5 games out of the Wild Card).  If these three keep pitching like this, they might be able to keep on rolling even with the shakeup at manager.

Friday, June 17, 2011

How many runs will the Angels score in June?

Fewest Runs scored in a month, since 2000 (24+ games):
45 April 2004 (Expos)
64 September 2002 (Tigers)
66 (Projected) June 2011 Angels
72 April 2011 (Padres)
74 September 2003 (Mets)
75 July 2010 (Mariners)
76 July 2001 (Mets); June 2003 (Dodgers)
78 September 2010 (Dodgers, Mariners)

79 August 2010 (Mets)
The dismal month the Angels are having offensively is odd not only because they've usually been solid over the last 10 years (especially in 2009, when they ranked 2nd in runs).  They were scoring runs just a month ago, ranking 11th in runs scored in May.  In May, they hit a respectable 22 HR, but they've only hit 3 through 16 games in June.  That means that 24 players have outhomered them so far this month. 

A lot of players have struggled, and Torii Hunter was probably having the worst month of all (.137, 0 HR, 3 RBI in June).  He did go 3-4 tonight with an RBI in their 4-3 victory over the Mets, which is a good sign.  They've been scoring more runs of late too(15 R in their last 4 games after 15 in their first 8 games of June).

Update (6/21): They've now scored 47 runs through 17 games, and they have 8 more games in June.  After a (relatively) huge offensive game on Sunday (7 R), they're now on pace to score 69 runs.  They're final 8 games are against the Marlins (2), Dodgers (3) and Nationals (3). 

The Marlins are reeling.  The usually strong Dodger pitching is off this season, and they're ranked 22nd in ERA (and 19th at home).  The Nationals are 10th in ERA, and 3rd best in June.  They've hit better of late, but it's going to take a big offensive surge to avoid having on the worst months in recent memory.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Shaun Marcum

3.5+ K/BB, 1.05 WHIP or lower, 50+ IP (2011)
David Price (Rays)
Dan Haren (Angels)
Cole Hamels (Phillies)
Jered Weaver (Angels)
Justin Verlander (Tigers)
Shaun Marcum (Brewers)

The only pitcher on this list that's a surprise is Shaun Marcum (7-2, 2.68 ERA), who is in his first season with the Brewers.  After missing 2009 with Tommy John surgery, he had a quality 2010 with the Blue Jays (13-8, 3.64 ERA), and was traded in December for a minor league prospect. 

He is a big reason with the Brewers are surprisingly in first place in the NL Central right now.  Marcum has also not gone less than 6 innings in any start since his first of the year on April 2nd (4 IP, 3 ER).  There is no reason to think he'll let up either, considering that he's only allowed 69 hits and 23 walks in 90.2 innings, along with 83 SO.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Watch out for the Twins?

Twins Offense
April: 82 R (#29 in ML)
May: 105 (#26)
June: 28 (#T-1)

Twins Pitching
April: 4.88 ERA (#27)
May: 4.87 (#29)
June: 2.05 (#3)

The Twins have won 4 in a row and they still have the worst record in baseball.  They're 12.5 games out, which is tied for the most of any team.  Still, you can never count the Twins out because they usually find a way to get back in the race (in 2009, they were 7 games out on September 7th and still won the division).

The Twins have been besieged by injuries, especially Joe Mauer, who has not played since April 12th.  Mauer is on his way back, though, and is rehabbing in the minors right now.  Can they make it back from 12.5 games?  It will be extremely tough, but I don't think fans in Cleveland, Detroit or Chicago will feel very good if the Twins are only 7 or 8 games out at the All-Star break.
Site Meter