Sunday, April 7, 2013

Can the Rockies make the playoffs in 2013?


Runs Scored - Home, Away; ERA - Home, Away (Colorado Rockies)
2007 #2, 14, 20, 7 (90-73, NL Champs)
2008 #10, 24, 27, 20 (74-88)
2009 #2, 21, 22, 7 (92-70, Wild Card)
2010 #1, 28, 23, 8 (83-79)
2011 #4, 28, 29, 19 (73-89)
2012 #1, 30, 30, 20 (64-98)

If the Rockies are going to compete for a playoff spot, we probably know how they're going to do it based on recent history.  When they made the playoffs in 2007 and 2009, they went 51-31 and 51-30 at home in those two seasons.  On the road, they were around .500 in both seasons. 

Their recipe for success is to be at the top in offense at home, somewhere near the middle in road offense and home pitching and a top 10 road ERA.  The only thing that has held steady is that they've been able to score runs in Colorado even as they nearly lost 100 games last year. 

They've been a pleasant surprise so far this year with a 4-1 start (only other teams with a 4-1 start are the much-hyped Nationals, Braves and D-Backs).  So far, they've done well in every area, scoring 19 runs in their 3 game road series in Milwaukee and only game up 5 runs in two games at home to the Padres. 

Can they compete?  It will help if they have only five pitchers that start over 10 games (like they did in 2009) rather than 9 like in 2012.  If Tulowitzki stays healthy, that'll give them a big boost.  Teams come out of nowhere every year to make the playoffs, and it will happen even more often with 2 Wild Card spots up for grabs.  The Rockies might be one of those teams. 

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