Saturday, October 5, 2013

Does Boston's incredible run differential matter in the playoffs?

195+ Run Differential (since 2002)
2002 Yankees (200)
2002 Angels (207) (Won WS)
2004 Cardinals (196) (Lost WS)
2007 Red Sox (210) (Won WS)
2011 Yankees (210)
2013 Red Sox (197)

It is a small sample size, but teams (other than the Yankees) with a 195+ run differential have been very successful in the playoffs since 2002.  The Red Sox pummelled the Rays for a 2nd straight game and appear all but certain to advance onto the next round. 

If they make it to the next round, their opponent will be much more evenly matched in run differential than the Rays (+54).  The Tigers are +172 and the A's are +142.  With recent history as a guide, teams with an overwhelming run differential tend to win in the LCS (2004 Cardinals and 2007 Red Sox went 7 games). 

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