Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Road to the World Series still very difficult for the Dodgers


The Dodgers seem like they're back in the NLCS after an impressive Game 3 win.  It looks like a relatively close series at this point, but the Dodgers still have an incredibly uphill climb.  If they lose tonight, they'll be down 3 games to 1.  The Cardinals blew a 3-1 lead last year to the Giants, getting outscored 20-1 in the final 3 years.  It could happen again, but it is much less likely because the Cardinals would have the final 2 games at home this time.

Dodgers - Must Win Games

Game 4 - Only 5 teams since 1926 have come back from a 3-1 deficit to close a series out on the road (1958 Yankees, 1968 Tigers, 1985 Royals, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox).  It is incredibly rare and unlikely to happen against the Cardinals, who have always been especially tough in winner-take-all games at home, except in 1968 (2011 WS, 2004 NLCS, 1987 NLCS, 1982 WS, 1964 WS, 1946 WS, 1931 WS).  Yes, the Dodgers have Kershaw and Greinke going again, but it is hard to imagine them hitting enough to win 3 straight elimination games.

Game 5 - If they win Game 4, it won't mean very much unless they win game 5 as well.  How many teams have lost Game 5 at home and still won a 7 game series?  Only 4: 1926 Cardinals (WS); 1934 Cardinals (WS); 1952 Yankees (WS); 1991 Braves (NLCS).  It is even more rare than coming back from 3-1, possibly because of the momentum shift from losing Game 5.

Game 6: If they can win Games 4 and 5  at home, they'll have a chance to close it out in Game 6.  This would be the first time that they are in a comfortable spot since the very beginning of the series.  Teams close out in Game 6 on the road all the time in the LCS.  It has happened 10 times since the LCS expanded to 7 games in 1985 and 3 times in the World Series since 1979 (1981, 1992, 2003).

Game 7: This is obviously a must-win for the Dodgers, and for the Cardinals.  This would be an exceptionally difficult game for the Dodgers to win under any circumstance, especially if they lose game 6.  Since 1975, there have been 15 times where a home team has won Game 6 to force a Game 7, and the home team has gone one to win 14 out of 15 (only exception: 2006 Cardinals in NLCS). 

How many times has a team close the first 2 games on the road and come back to win in 6?  1978 Yankees (WS); 1981 Dodgers (WS); 1985 Cardinals (NLCS). 

The Dodgers won 42 out of 50 games at one point this season, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that they would still win this series.  They could easily win the next 2 games at home and return to St. Louis with a 3-2 lead, but they have no margin for error.  Teams have been winning plenty of winner-take-all games in the LDS, but it is still very rare in a 7 game series. 

30 comments:

  1. Handbags are not altered from gucci replica added bolt and they are like added articles needs to be awash on discounts on altered occasions.The bazaar is abounding with these replica Burberry handbags and humans are affairs them in huge abundance because of their bargain prices and adorable discounts.You will appear beyond several websites that will accord you all the admired advice about the Burberry replica handbags and the discounts offered by these websites on the assorted curve of these replica Burberry handbags.You can buy them at chanel replica discounted ante and allowance to your acquaintance and relatives.It is a action and aphorism of appeal and supply.If there is added appeal the accumulation will be top and humans will buy added and added of that product.Buyers charge to abode the orders advanced for the latest styles handbags in the market.Barter about see the sample of replica watches uk the replica Burberry handbags and accomplish a accommodation to acquirement the handbags based on the samples.Do you plan on application it every day or alone for appropriate occasion? Omega Replica Watches appear in a array of colors and shapes.There are even actual baby composition carriers for trips.It depends hublot replica on how and area you plan to use it.If arcade for Omega Replica Watches,accomplish abiding to buy from a aggregation that prides itself on ancestors of attitude in watch making.If you do,you'll not alone own a advantageous Omega Replica Watches,but you'll aswell own an admirable section of art.Choosing a Architecture and Blush for Your Omega Replica Watches.

    ReplyDelete
  2. marc jacobs outlet, http://www.marcjacobs.cc/
    moncler outlet, http://www.nobis.us.com/
    stuart weitzman outlet, http://www.stuartweitzmanoutlet.us/
    nike outlet, http://www.nikeoutletstore.us/
    cheap oakley sunglasses, http://www.oakleysunglasses-outlet.us.com/
    nike soccer shoes, http://www.nikemercurial.org/
    cleveland cavaliers, http://www.cavaliersjerseys.net/
    camisetas futbol baratas, http://www.futbol-baratas.com/
    san antonio spurs, http://www.sanantoniospursjersey.com/
    wedding dresses, http://www.cheap-weddingdresses.net/
    nike foamposite, http://www.foampositeshoe.net/
    parajumpers outlet, http://www.woolrichoutletstore.us.com/
    snow boots, http://www.wintercoats.us.com/
    ghd uk, http://www.ghdhairstraightenerssale.co.uk/
    toms outlet, http://www.toms.us.com/
    nike air max 2015, http://www.airmax2015.in.net/
    hermes outlet, http://www.hermesbags.co.uk/
    lacoste shirts, http://www.polo-lacoste-shirts.fr/
    roshe run men, http://www.rosherunshoessale.com/
    michael kors outlet online, http://michaelkors.outletonlinestores.us.com/
    1017minko

    ReplyDelete
  3. with domed Replica watches UK sapphire crystal glass table mirror,table mirror extremely resistant, translucent clear, the process will be the perfect Rolex Daytona top watch unreserved expose the eyes. Table preceded by 18K white gold simple and elegant style,Replica Watches the crown decorated with the classic triangle side grooves enhance the feel of Replica handbags the chain, while also making the case more classical elegance, top crown flower printed each piece of body “B” word handbagreplica logo.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Coach Outlet http://www.coachoutletfactory-stores.us.com

    North Face Outlet http://www.northface-outlets.com.co

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadefactoryoutlet.in.net

    ED Hardy Outlet http://www.edhardypopsale.com

    Coach Outlet Store Online http://www.coachstoreonline.in.net

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletstore.in.net

    Cheap Jordans http://www.cheapjordansretro.us.com

    Michael Kors Outlet Store http://www.michaelkorsoutletsstores.us.com

    Coach Purses http://www.coachpurses.eu.com

    Coach Outlet http://www.coachoutlet2016.us.com

    Tory Burch Shoes http://www.toryburch-outlet.us.org

    Longchamp Outlet http://www.longchampoutlet.in.net

    Michael Kors Handbags http://www.innnov8.com

    Coach Outlet http://www.innnovate.com

    Red Bottom Shoes http://www.redbottomshoes.us.org

    Moncler Jackets http://www.monclerdownjackets.us.com

    North Face Outlet http://www.northfacestoreoutlet.in.net

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletstore.us.com

    Moncler Outlet http://www.moncleroutletonline.in.net

    Coach Factory http://www.maganates.com

    Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachfactorysoutlet.in.net

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katesapdeoutlet.us.org

    Ray Ban Outlet http://www.raybanoutletstore.in.net

    Christian Louboutin Shoes http://www.christianlouboutinshoes2016.in.net

    North Face Outlet http://www.northfaceoutlets.us.org

    Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachoutletstore.name

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletonline.name

    Coach Outlet http://www.coach-outlets.us.org

    Nike Roshe Run http://www.tanie-nikerosherun.pl

    Buty Nike Air Max http://www.airmaxsprzedazdla.pl

    Nike Air Max http://www.nikeairmax.us.org

    Red Bottom Shoes http://www.redbottomshoe.in.net

    Christian Louboutin Outlet http://www.christianlouboutinoutlet.us.org

    Balenciaga Handbags http://www.balenciagaoutlets.us.com

    Balenciaga Handbags http://www.balenciaga-handbags.us.com

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadefactoryoutlet.in.net

    Toms Shoes http://www.tomshoesoutlet.us.com

    Hermes Belt http://www.hermes-belts.us.com

    Prada Outlet http://www.pradafactoryoutlet.com

    Louis Vuitton Outlet http://www.louisvuittonsoutlet.us.com

    North Face Outlet Store http://www.northfaceoutletstore.in.net

    North Face Jackets http://www.north-face.in.net

    North Face http://www.north-faceoutlets.us.com

    Louis Vuitton Outlet http://www.louisvuitton-outlets.us.org

    Timberland Boots http://www.timberland-outlets.us.com

    Cheap Timberland Boots http://www.timberlandoutlet.us.com

    Tory Burch Outlet http://www.outlettoryburch.us.com

    Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michaelkorsoutletusa.us.com

    Ralph Lauren Outlet http://www.ralphlaurenstoreoutlet.us.com

    Gucci Shoes http://www.guccifactoryoutlet.name

    Gucci Outlet http://www.guccioutletco.us.com

    North Face Jackets http://www.northfacefactoryoutlet.us.com

    Prada Outlet http://www.pradaoutlets.in.net

    Hollister Clothing http://www.hollister-clothing.us.com

    Ferragamo Shoes http://www.ferragamoshoes.us.org

    Tiffany Outlet http://www.tiffany-outlets.us.com

    Tiffany Outlet http://www.tiffanyco-outlet.us.com

    NFL Jerseys http://www.nfljerseys.name

    Toms Outlet http://www.outlettoms.us.com

    Cheap Jordans http://www.cheapjordans.eu.com

    North Face Outlet http://www.thenorthfaceoutlet.us.org

    Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michael-korsoutletstores.us.com

    Prada Handbags http://www.pradaoutlet.us.org

    Chan Luu Sale http://www.chanluu.us.com

    Toms Outlet http://www.tomsoutletstores.us.com

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadeoutletonline.us.org

    Beats By Dr Dre http://www.beatsbydrdre.us.org

    Coach Outlet http://www.coachstoreoutlet.us.org

    Christian Louboutin Shoes http://www.christianlouboutinshoe.eu.com

    Valentino Shoes http://www.valentinoshoes.eu.com

    Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michaelkorsoutlet.us.org

    Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachfactoryoutlet.us.org

    Coach Outlet Online http://www.coachoutletonlinestore.us.org

    Coach Purses http://www.coachpurse.us.com

    ReplyDelete
  5. given article is very helpful and very useful for my admin, and pardon me permission to share articles here hopefully helped :

    Cara menyembuhkan polip lambung
    Cara menyembuhkan radang lambung
    Obat infeksi paru paru

    ReplyDelete
  6. given article is very helpful and very useful for my admin, and pardon me permission to share articles here hopefully helped Obat jantung bengkak

    ReplyDelete
  7. given article is very helpful and very useful for my admin, and pardon me permission to share articles here hopefully helped : Obat susah kencing

    ReplyDelete
  8. thank you very useful information admin, and pardon me permission to share articles here may help Obat radang sendi tradisional

    ReplyDelete
  9. thank you very useful information admin, and pardon me permission to share articles here may help Cara menyembuhkan pneumonia

    ReplyDelete
  10. thank you very useful information admin, and pardon me permission to share articles here may help

    Cara menyembuhkan penyakit gerd
    Cara mengatasi benjolan di ketiak
    Obat infeksi saluran pernafasan

    ReplyDelete
  11. sharing information was lovely and very helpful, increase knowledge, and pardon me permission to share health articles here may be useful to you in particular are looking for Cara mengatasi mata kering

    ReplyDelete
  12. a given article is very interesting and very useful for my admin thank you very much and sorry for my permission to share the article here :

    Obat jantung bengkak herbal
    Obat herbal penebalan dinding rahim
    Cara mengatasi kepikunan

    ReplyDelete

 
Site Meter