Thursday, February 27, 2014

How Dominant will Pitching be in 2014?


# of teams that allowed a Slugging % at .370 or below (Pre/Post All Star Break)
2004 (0/0)
2005 (0/0)
2006 (0/0)
2007 (1/0)
2008 (1/0)
2009 (1/2)
2010 (2/2)
2011 (7/3)
2012 (3/3)
2013 (2/8)

If this trend holds and teams are able to carry dominance like this in both halves of the season, 2014 is going to be an extraordinary year for pitching.  Maybe the 2nd half of 2013 was like the first half of 2011 and that number will be a fluke. 

From 2000-2008, there was only 1 team (2003 Dodgers) that allowed a slugging % of .370 or lower for the full season.  Since 2008, it has happened 12 times, including 4 times in 2013 (Pirates, Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals).  Along with the skyrocketing strikeout numbers, it will be fascinating to see if these numbers hold steady, go down or keep going up.  My guess is that they hold steady, but it is difficult to predict anything right now. 



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